Posted by
HNAV on Saturday, October 21, 2006 11:56:45 AM
Will these wacky Democrats claim Barron's is a 'cog',
in the Vast Right Wing Rovian Conspiracy?
Look out for the BARRON's forecast...
JUBILANT DEMOCRATS SHOULD RECONSIDER their order for confetti and
noisemakers. The Democrats, as widely reported, are expecting GOP-weary
voters to flock to the polls in two weeks and hand them control of the
House for the first time in 12 years -- and perhaps the Senate, as
well. Even some Republicans privately confess that they are
anticipating the election-day equivalent of Little Big Horn. Pardon our
hubris, but we just don't see it.
Our analysis -- based on a
race-by-race examination of campaign-finance data -- suggests that the
GOP will hang on to both chambers, at least nominally. We expect the
Republican majority in the House to fall by eight seats, to 224 of the
chamber's 435. At the very worst, our analysis suggests, the party's
loss could be as large as 14 seats, leaving a one-seat majority. But
that is still a far cry from the 20-seat loss some are predicting. In
the Senate, with 100 seats, we see the GOP winding up with 52, down
three
We studied every single race -- all 435 House seats and
33 in the Senate -- and based our predictions about the outcome in
almost every race on which candidate had the largest campaign war
chest, a sign of superior grass-roots support. We ignore the polls.
Thus, our conclusions about individual races often differ from the
conventional wisdom. Pollsters, for instance, have upstate New York
Republican Rep. Tom Reynolds trailing Democratic challenger Jack Davis,
who owns a manufacturing plant. But Reynolds raised $3.3 million in
campaign contributions versus $1.6 million for Davis, so we score him
the winner.These predictions are really quite
amusing, in the face of all the hysteria provided by many on both
political sides, and the biased 'drive by' media.
This poster
does not believe all of Barron's predictions. For example, I would be
willing to wager, the Liberal Busby will be defeated again in
California.
Regardless, it is a fascinating study, based on
something more than defeatist rhetoric, baseless polls manipulation,
and Democrat delusions.
But what about George Soros?